2021 Canadian federal election in Quebec

2021 Canadian federal election in Quebec
September 20, 2021 (2021-09-20)
All 78 Quebec seats in the House of Commons of Canada
Opinion polls
Registered6,495,755
Turnout4,051,633 (62.37%) [1]
  First party Second party
 
Justin Trudeau in 2019 at the G7 (Biarritz) (48622478973) (cropped) (cropped) (cropped).jpg
Yves-François Blanchet Entrevue no smile 2023 (cropped-2).png
Leader Justin Trudeau Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Bloc Québécois
Leader since April 14, 2013 January 17, 2019
Last election 35 seats, 34.3% 32 seats, 32.4%
Seats before 35 32
Seats won 35 32
Seat change Steady 0 Steady 0
Popular vote 1,364,485 1,301,615
Percentage 33.6% 32.1%
Swing Decrease 0.7 pp Decrease 0.3 pp
  Third party Fourth party
 
ErinO'Toole (cropped).jpg
Jagmeet Singh in Brantford 2022 2 (cropped3).jpg
Leader Erin O'Toole Jagmeet Singh
Party Conservative New Democratic
Leader since August 24, 2020 October 1, 2017
Last election 10 seats, 16.0% 1 seats, 10.8%
Seats before 10 1
Seats won 10 1
Seat change Steady 0 Steady 0
Popular vote 756,412 395,401
Percentage 18.6% 9.8%
Swing Increase 2.6 pp Decrease 1.0 pp
Prime Minister before election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

Prime Minister after election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

In the 2021 Canadian federal election, there were 78 members of Parliament elected to the House of Commons from the province of Quebec, making up 23.1% of all members of the House.

Background

Timeline

See also: By-elections to the 43rd Canadian Parliament

Opinion polling

Opinion polling During the election campaign

Predictions

See also: Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election
Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Link LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[a] 		Sample
size[b] 		Polling method[c] Lead
Leger September 1, 2021 [2] 33 20 13 28 3 2 1 ±1.8 pp 3,102 online 5
Leger December 13, 2020 [3] 33 21 11 30 4 — 1 ±3.1 pp 1,004 online 3
Leger September 3, 2020 [4] 30 20 14 30 5 — 1 ±3.1 pp 1,000 online 0

Summary

Campaign

The English-language debate gained notoriety when the moderator posed a question to Blanchet that suggested some in English speaking Canada may view Quebec's law on secularism as "discriminatory". He challenged her use of that word, and the response was seen as a turning point in the Bloc's campaign, which saw an upsurge in the polls after the debate.[5] The Quebec National Assembly passed a motion calling for a formal apology for the question.[6]

Premier of Quebec François Legault endorsed a Conservative government. He called the Liberal Party, the NDP and the Green Party dangerous.[7]

Le Devoir endorsed the Bloc Québécois [8]

Results

Quebec summary seat results in the 2021 Canadian federal election[9][10]
Party Votes Vote % Vote +/- Seats Seat +/-
Liberal 1,364,485
33.6%
 Decrease 0.7pp
35 / 78 (45%)
 Steady 0
Bloc Québécois 1,301,615
32.1%
 Decrease 0.3pp
32 / 78 (41%)
 Steady 0
Conservative 756,412
18.6%
 Increase 2.6pp
10 / 78 (13%)
 Steady 0
New Democratic 395,401
9.8%
 Decrease 1.0pp
1 / 78 (1%)
 Steady 0
People's 108,744
2.7%
 Increase 1.2pp
0 / 78 (0%)
 Steady 0
Green 61,488
1.5%
 Decrease 3.0pp
0 / 78 (0%)
 Steady 0
Free 44,214
1.1%
 Increase 1.1pp
0 / 78 (0%)
 Steady 0
Independent 8,476
0.2%
 pp
0 / 78 (0%)
 Steady 0
Other 12,406
0.3%
 pp
0 / 78 (0%)
 Steady 0
Total 4,053,241
100%
 –
78 / 78 (100%)
 Steady 0

Comparison with national results

Results by party
Party Popular vote % Seats in caucus
QC Natl. avg. diff.
Liberal 33.6 32.6 +1.0
35 / 160 (22%)
Bloc Québécois 32.1 7.6 +24.5
32 / 32 (100%)
Conservative 18.6 33.7 -15.1
10 / 119 (8%)
New Democratic 9.8 17.8 -8.0
1 / 25 (4%)
Green 1.5 2.3 -0.8
0 / 2 (0%)
People's 2.7 4.9 -2.2 no caucus
Free 1.1 0.3 +0.8 no caucus
  Total – – –
78 / 338 (23%)

Student vote results

Student votes are mock elections that run parallel to actual elections, in which students not of voting age participate. They are administered by Student Vote Canada. These are for educational purposes and do not count towards the results.[11]

Summary of the 2021 Canadian Student Vote in Quebec
Party Leader Seats Popular vote
Elected % Δ Votes % Δ (pp)
Liberal Justin Trudeau 40 51.28 Increase 6 26,465 31.19 Increase 3.54
Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blanchet 21 26.92 Increase 9 16,200 19.09 Increase 4.25
Conservative Erin O'Toole 9 11.54 Increase 1 11,116 13.10 Increase 2.92
New Democratic Jagmeet Singh 7 8.97 Decrease 15 18,083 21.31 Decrease 2.92
Green Annamie Paul 1 1.28 Decrease 2 5,939 7.00 Decrease 9.55
Other 0 0 Steady 0  4,512 5.32 Increase 1.61
People's Maxime Bernier 0 0 Steady 0 2,543 3.00 Increase 0.16
Total 78 100.00 Steady 0 84,858 100.00 –
Source: Student Vote Canada[12]

Notes

  1. ^ In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
  2. ^ Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
  3. ^ "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.

References

  1. ^ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1268003/federal-election-results-canada-quebec/
  2. ^ "poll" (PDF). Leger. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 2, 2021. Retrieved September 2, 2021.
  3. ^ "poll" (PDF). Leger.
  4. ^ "poll" (PDF). Leger. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 20, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  5. ^ Stevenson, Verity (September 16, 2021). "Controversial question in English debate may have galvanized Bloc voters". CBC News. Archived from the original on September 26, 2021. Retrieved September 26, 2021.
  6. ^ "Quebec demands formal apology for controversial question at English debate".
  7. ^ Lajoie, Geneviève (September 9, 2021). "Legault pour un gouvernement conservateur minoritaire". Le Journal de Québec (in French). Quebecor. Archived from the original on September 17, 2021. Retrieved September 18, 2021.
  8. ^ Myles, Brian (September 18, 2021). "Tout ça pour ça?" [All that for this?]. Le Devoir (in French). Montreal. Archived from the original on September 19, 2021. Retrieved September 19, 2021.
  9. ^ "Official Voting Results". www.elections.ca. Archived from the original on May 28, 2025. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  10. ^ "Official Voting Results". www.elections.ca. Archived from the original on May 28, 2025. Retrieved May 30, 2025.
  11. ^ https://studentvote.ca/canada/
  12. ^ https://studentvote.ca/results/provincial_results/38/2
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