2025 Canadian federal election in Nova Scotia

2025 Canadian federal election in Nova Scotia
April 28, 2025 (2025-04-28)
All 11 Nova Scotian seats in the House of Commons
Registered799,595
Turnout577,740 (72.25%)[1]
  First party Second party Third party
 
Mark Carney portrait February 2020.jpg
Pierre Poilievre in 2023 (edited).jpg
Jagmeet Singh in Brantford 2022 2 (cropped3).jpg
Leader Mark Carney Pierre Poilievre Jagmeet Singh
Party Liberal Conservative New Democratic
Leader since March 9, 2025 September 10, 2022 October 1, 2017
Last election 8 seats, 42.3% 3 seats, 29.4% 0 seats, 22.1%
Seats before 7 3 0
Seats won 10 1 0
Seat change Increase 3 Decrease 2 Steady 0
Popular vote 330,556 203,290 30,129
Percentage 57.2% 35.2% 5.2%
Swing Increase 14.9% Increase 5.8% Decrease 16.9%
Prime minister before election

Mark Carney
Liberal

Prime minister after election

Mark Carney
Liberal

In the 2025 Canadian federal election, 11 members of Parliament were elected to the House of Commons from the province of Nova Scotia (3.2% of all members).

2022 electoral redistribution

The 2025 Canadian federal election was the first election to utilize the electoral districts established following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. The House of Commons increased from 338 seats to 343 seats. Nova Scotia's seat allocation stayed the same at 11 seats. This ensures that the average population per constituency in Nova Scotia is 88,126 (according to the 2021 Canadian census), which is 19,722 less people per electoral district than the national average.[2]

Timeline

See also: By-elections to the 44th Canadian Parliament
Changes in Nova Scotian seats held (2021–2025)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Halifax August 31, 2024 Andy Fillmore █ Liberal Resigned to run for the mayoralty of Halifax, Nova Scotia April 14, 2025 (cancelled) █ Vacant

Predictions

See also: Opinion polling for the 2025 Canadian federal election
Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[a] 		Sample
size[b] 		Polling method[c] Lead
Abacus Data March 20, 2025 [3] 46 37 12 3 2 1 ± 4.1 pp 600 Online 9
Cardinal Research November 15, 2024 [4] 40 37 17 3 1 — ± 3.5 pp 1046 Telephone 3
Narrative Research August 18, 2024 [5] 30 43 21 4 2 0 ± 2.6 pp 400 Telephone 13

Results

Summary

Nova Scotian summary seat results in the 2025 Canadian federal election
Party Votes Vote % Vote +/- Seats Seat +/-
Liberal 330,556
57.2%
 Increase 14.9pp
10 / 11 (91%)
 Increase 3
Conservative 203,290
35.2%
 Increase 5.8pp
1 / 11 (9%)
 Decrease 2
New Democratic 30,129
5.2%
 Decrease 16.9pp
0 / 11 (0%)
 Steady 0
Green 5,442
0.9%
 Decrease 1.0pp
0 / 11 (0%)
 Steady 0
People's 5,126
0.9%
 Decrease 3.1pp
0 / 11 (0%)
 Steady 0
Independents and minor parties 3,197
0.6%
 Increase 0.3pp
0 / 11 (0%)
 Steady 0
Total 577,740
100%
 –
11 / 11 (100%)
 Increase 1[d]

[6]

Comparison with national results

Results by party
Party Popular vote % Seats in caucus
NS Natl. diff.
Liberal 57.2 43.7 +13.5
10 / 169 (6%)
Conservative 35.2 41.3 -6.1
1 / 144 (0.7%)
New Democratic 5.2 6.3 -1.1
0 / 7 (0%)
Green 0.9 1.2 -0.3
0 / 1 (0%)
People's 0.9 0.7 +0.2 no caucus
  Total – – –
11 / 343 (3%)

Student vote results

Student votes are mock elections that run parallel to actual elections, in which students not of voting age participate. They are administered by Student Vote Canada. These are for educational purposes and do not count towards the results.[7]

Summary of the 2025 Canadian Student Vote in Nova Scotia
Party Leader Seats Popular vote
Elected % Δ Votes % Δ (pp)
Liberal Mark Carney 8 72.73 Increase 4 11,460 39.99 Increase 11.88
Conservative Pierre Poilievre 3 27.27 Increase 1 8,611 30.05 Increase 9.85
New Democratic Jagmeet Singh 0 0 Decrease 5 3,694 12.89 Decrease 18.67
Green Elizabeth May & Jonathan Pedneault 0 0 Steady 0 2,657 9.27 Decrease 1.65
People's Maxime Bernier 0 0 Steady 0 1,638 5.72 Decrease 0.87
Other 0 0 Steady 0  597 2.08 Decrease 0.54
Total 11 100.00 Steady 0 28,657 100.00 –
Source: Student Vote Canada[8]

Notes

  1. ^ In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
  2. ^ Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
  3. ^ "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.
  4. ^ 1 seat was vacant at the dissolution of Parliament.

References

  1. ^ https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e
  2. ^ "New House of Commons Seat Allocation" (Press release). Gatineau: Elections Canada. July 8, 2022. Archived from the original on July 8, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
  3. ^ "Abacus Data Poll: What's Happening in Nova Scotia". Abacus Data. Retrieved March 24, 2024.
  4. ^ "Nova Scotia Provincial Polling November 7-15, 2024". Cardinal Research. Retrieved November 21, 2024.
  5. ^ https://narrativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/24-3-Federal-Voting-Intentions-FINAL.pdf
  6. ^ https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e
  7. ^ "Student Vote Canada".
  8. ^ "Student Vote Canada 2025 — Results". Retrieved April 29, 2025.
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