I'd vote for controls.
Both mechanisms can achieve the flow you want, and from a fundamental perspective neither is going to really be worse (as in load times, memory consumed, or what have you) so it's largely a personal style decision. Me, I use a UI framework that lends itself heavily to UserControls, so that's what I use.
Generally speaking, when I create an app I have a single parent/host form that has Workspaces where I put my Views. Thos Views are UserControls. Whether I use a tabbed workspace or a desk workspace, they still end up as Controls. The only reason I use more than one full-up Form is if I have a dialog (warnings, inputs, etc) where I will be doing a ShowDialog call.